QUARTERBACK
Konami Play: Kyler Murray
Justin Herbert is the smashiest, but the theme of Week 1 is misunderstood quarterbacks on new teams. Start Murray, because the Packers poor run blocking will force Love to drop back and push the pace. Green Bay’s defense features great safety play anchored by all-pro Xavier McKinney, but they lack playmaking corners on the perimeter. Murray will be locking in on Jefferson and Addison and will also pull it down and run at will when plays break down.
Sleeper Pick: Geno Smith
Hear me out on this. I know the Jets are projected for just 17.5 implied points, but I believe Vegas fundamentally does not understand how good this Jets offense will be with a revitalized Geno under center. The Titans have a bottom tier secondary that lacks established playmakers on the backend and frequently surrendering chunk plays when forced into man coverage against dynamic wide receiver corps, and the Jets do in fact have a dynamic receiving corps.
RUNNING BACK
Good Chalk: D’Andre Swift
Swift will likely be enjoying positive game script while facing a bottom tier rush defense (123.3 rush yards allowed per game and 4.4 yard per carry in 2025). Monangai is coming back from a hyperextended knee, and the team will be leaning on Swift, who finished 2025 with a Top-10 Explosive Play Rating on PlayerProfiler. Play him aggressively this week.
Must-start: Rico Dowdle
Dowdle will handle more of the between-the-tackles work, and Week 1 is best-case scenario at home vs. Atlanta. With Cooper Rush potentially under center, the Steelers should enjoy some rare positive game script. Dowdle is well-positioned to make the most of it as the Falcons finished No. 27 in rushing yards allowed per game, surrendering 126.2 yards per game.
