Here are my show notes from this week’s Top-10 Takeaways.
Takeaway 10: Drake Maye’s Josh Allen Comp Remains Intact
Drake Maye is going to figure it out. He is not Mac Jones.
Look at this week:
Josh Allen: 23-of-33, 253 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Drake Maye: 22-of-37, 269 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT
One guy did it with Romeo Doubs, who is still bad. The other did it with Keon Coleman, who is still bad. Both of these defacto WR1s scored 23 fantasy points in Week 4.
Don’t lose sight of the bigger picture with Maye. He remains on that Josh Allen career trajectory.
Takeaway 9: Colston Loveland Is a Raging Buy Low
Nine more targets. Still no touchdowns.
Loveland posted a 29% Target Share and continues to earn a red-zone target seemingly every week. The touchdowns are coming.
When Caleb Williams comes back, Loveland has a path to becoming the second-best tight end in the sport behind Brock Bowers. Buy before the box scores catch up to the usage.
Takeaway 8: The Chargers Are Broken, and Omarion Hampton is a dynasty buy
The Chargers are 0-4, and they are just not any good right now. Omarion Hampton remains a buy in dynasty. This is still a first-round running back with an all-purpose skill set. The team environment is depressing his value, but that’s exactly why the buying opportunity exists.
Win-now dynasty managers could view Hampton’s 12-point game as a mini sell window. Take advantage.
Takeaway 7: Emmanuel Wilson THE TOP Waiver Pickup of the Week
Fantasy football is a week-to-week sport. Emmanuel Wilson is a strong pickup this week.
Not Keon Coleman.
Wilson has exactly what we should be targeting on waivers: a primary-back skill set on a good team and a good offensive line. Green Bay went up 20-6, and Wilson scored on a reception after seeing zero targets the previous week.
Remember what happened with Ollie Gordon. Jaylen Wright scared people away from aggressively bidding on Gordon. Don’t let Zach Charbonnet or the Joe Mixon signing scare you away from Wilson.
Seattle gets San Francisco, Denver and Kansas City next, and the Seahawks are favored in all three games.
Takeaway 6: Play Grinder Backs Against the Jets
The Jets allowed more than 200 rushing yards in Week 4. DeAndre Swift was a great process play.
Quinshon Judkins is next up vs. NYJ. Fire him up. And fire back up Braelon Allen who just posted a 100% Opportunity Share. Whethe it is Seattle or Cleveland, when the matchup is begging opponents to grind out rushing volume, don’t overthink it.
Takeaway 5: Opportunity Consolidation Is THE BEST Thing
Opportunity consolidation is one of the most powerful forces in fantasy football, and look no further than Carolina in Week 4.
No Jalen Coker. No Xavier Legette. No Jonathon Brooks. No Travor Etienne.
Over his last two games, Chuba Hubbard has an 84% Snap Share with a 55% Route Participation Rate and is producing fantasy RB1 numbers.
Meanwhile, Tetairoa McMillan exploded for 45 fantasy points on 16 targets in Week 4 without Coker.
Takeaway 4: Darius Cooper and Efton Chism Are Where the NFL Is Going
WR4s are making spectacular plays in practice and then doing it in actual NFL games unlike anything we have seen. Darius Cooper looked like Randy Moss and led his team with seven targets. Efton Chism made a game-winning catch with Julian Edelman-like workout metrics. Meanwhile, one-dimensional receivers like Dontayvion Wicks are vulnerable to exactly this type of talent influx.
Antonio Williams is next, and he will have spike weeks when Jayden Daniels returns.
Even though a player like Laquon Treadwell did not quite get there this week, keep streaming WR2/WR3 players in the highest game total contests when you are in a tough spot in very deep leagues.
Takeaway 3: Game Totals Love Reminding Us How Much They Matter
The worst Play of the Week was Bucky Irving. That was a flameout that I saw coming and pushed the button anyway. I played Bucky Irving and Jordan Love together on Sport.fun as a mini game stack. I knew it was suboptimal, but Bucky’s 73.3% Opportunity Share through three weeks made the touchdown equity difficult to ignore. So of course, the RB touchdown went to Gainwell.
On the other side, Green Bay ran the ball 21 times into the teeth of a pass-funnel defense for 86 yards, with a huge chunk coming on one Kaleb Johnson run. Facing Jalon Daniels, the Packers enjoyed the luxury of a run-first approach.
Regardless, playing Irving at home with a 38.5 total was the bad process play of the year. Game environment is that critical.
Takeaway 2: Robust RB Was the Only Way
Twelve running backs drafted between picks 51 and 100 are averaging fewer than 10 fantasy points per game.
Bhayshul Tuten was arguably the last RB before the RB Dead Zone and he posted a season-high 57% Snap Share with a massive 68% Rush Share in Week 4. He is a must-buy given how often Jacksonville projects to play with a lead this year.
Jaylen Warren and Chuba Hubbard are two of the only late-round RBs helping fantasy gamers win match-ups right now. They benefited from injuries, but that’s part of the point: early-round backs give you access to consolidated workloads that are incredibly difficult to find later.
The New England Dead Zone backs have been particularly putrid. Rhamondre Stevenson has played 59% of New England’s snaps over the last two weeks compared with 37% for TreVeyon Henderson. Even more jarring, Stevenson’s Route Participation Rate advantage is 51% to 28%, and he has established himself as the goal-line back. Henderson is looking even bustier than Jadarian Price.
Takeaway 1: Calling the Bottom
This is what we’re always trying to do: get there one week early.
Malik Nabers bottomed out in Week 3. He went from a 77% Route Participation Rate, 29% Target Share and just five air yards in Week 3 to a 91% Route Participation Rate, 24% Target Share and 113 air yards in Week 4. The Result: 23 fantasy points. Nabers is all the way back, and my daughter beat me with Nabers this week.
Buy Xavier Worthy. He caught a 41-yard bomb, while Tyquan Thornton caught a 55-yarder before he himself went down with an injury. Worthy was actually hurt by Rashee Rice’s injury because role redundancy mattered more than target conservation helped him.
Michael Wilson is a neutral buy after commanding a 35% Target Share and continuing to earn red-zone looks.
Carnell Tate is becoming a buy high. Tate owns a 30% Target Share this season. The only comparable rookie wide receivers target shares in recent memory are Malik Nabers, Drake London and Puka Nacua. That’s good company.
The lesson is simple: When elite underlying usage starts flashing, stop waiting for confirmation. Get them on rosters before they start scoring touchdowns.