As I prepare to record Top-10 (now 20) Takeaways, I want to lay out my show notes as I sit down to record.
Where to tune-in:
YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/NMLgTvCMiwM
Podcast: https://pod.link/1671453139
1. Ja’Kobi Lane Is Taking Over
Lane played more than 80% of 3-wide receiver set snaps, and his route and target rates topped Rashod Bateman’s. The dynamic rookie is earning opportunities, so add him before the box score makes the decision obvious.
2. Elic Ayomanor Has Arrived
Ayomanor stepped into a full-time outside role, caught three passes for 44 yards, and out-targeted Wan’Dale Robinson. Calvin Ridley and Chimere Dike are fading from the picture. Cam Ward is slowly coming around. Get ahead of this connection.
3. KC Concepcion Rising in Dynasty
Eight catches. 129 yards. A career-high 35.7% targets per route run. Concepcion was the story through the air on Sunday, and he is coming for the receivers ahead of him in dynasty. Nico Collins, check your mirrors.
4. Jonah Coleman: We Are Doing This Again!
Coleman returned from IR, immediately led Denver’s backfield in snaps, doubled RJ Harvey’s playing time, and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. Only 34% rostered in Yahoo leagues? Make him a priority. The J.K. Dobbins era is running out of runway.
5. Ollie Gordon II is an Official Bell Cow
Gordon played 42 of 52 snaps before garbage time. That is bell-cow usage. Remember wayyy wayyy back when Jaylen Wright was the more efficient player in a small sample and was named the starter. We never cared!
6. Braelon Allen is an All-Purpose Workhorse
Another 19 fantasy points and a 24% target share against Miami. Meanwhile, Kendre Miller delivered five points after we kept him outside our top-five waiver adds. Allen’s combination of rushing volume and receiving involvement is exactly what we were chasing with our FAAB each week.
Over four games, courtesy of Zack Rosenblatt: 357 rushing yards, 22 forced missed tackles, 4.21 yards after contact per attempt, 14 runs of 10-plus yards, and seven of 15-plus. Allen leads that stretch in missed tackles and both explosive-run categories. The rushing pace: approximately 1,517 yards over 17 games.
7. JJ McCarthy is rising in all formats
JJ McCarthy had a positive EPA per play against the Texans. Better than Joe Burrow, Daniel Jones, and Cam Ward so far this year.
8. Bad Blocking Creates Buying—and Selling—Opportunities
The bottom-eight run-blocking units: Chargers, Texans, Packers, Raiders, Commanders, Eagles, Saints, Patriots. Sell high on Josh Jacobs after 19 fantasy points fueled mostly through the air. Buy low on TreVeyon Henderson and Omarion Hampton in dynasty. Talent matters beyond this year’s offensive line situation.
Jeanty’s 34 catches, 312 receiving yards, and three receiving touchdowns account for 83.2 of his 122 PPR points—68.2%. Receiving involvement keeps backs afloat behind bad lines. Jeanty combines it with the bell-cow workload needed to start him confidently.
9. Too Many Hungry Mouths in Houston
Nico Collins ran go routes or similar vertical patterns on roughly half his routes. Tank Dell caught a 43-yard pass. Hutchinson and Harrison scored. Noel and Boutte each drew two targets. Collins’ deployment is creating a field-stretcher profile when fantasy managers need dependable alpha volume.
Marks handled 100% of Houston’s running back touches at home and scored eight fantasy points. That hurts. Marks, Keaton Mitchell, Rhamondre Stevenson, Alvin Kamara, and Rachaad White need receiving work to overcome difficult rushing environments. Owning a backfield only gets you so far.
10. Minnesota’s Wins Are Not Your Fantasy Points
The Vikings are 6-0. Justin Jefferson scored eight fantasy points. Jordan Addison has exceeded 10 once this season, when Jefferson was injured. Winning real football games does not automatically create enough passing production to support multiple fantasy starters.
11. Jordan Mason Is Back on the Waiver Radar
Mason returned from IR and quickly played 19 of 34 snaps after Aaron Jones left with a lower-body injury. Monitor Jones closely. Mason has already shown how quickly he can inherit meaningful work when this backfield opens up.
12. Mason Taylor is the TE1 in New York
Mason Taylor has quietly doubled the route participation of Kenyon Sadiq the last two games. We are going to have a wait a year to see anything more from Sadiq tho that one 23 pt Week 3 was just so satisfying. Who was that against? Detroit.
13. Seth McGowan Earning Touches, Josh Downs Squandering
McGowan played 20 snaps in a roughly two-thirds, one-third backfield split and turned 11 carries into 46 yards. That is enough involvement to keep stashing him. Josh Downs led the passing game with a 19% target share and continues doing frustratingly little with his opportunities.
14. Caleb Douglas Is Passing Chris Bell
Douglas delivered two touchdowns and a 63-yard reception. Both rookies have returned from injury, but Douglas is supplying the explosive plays. Bell’s college YAC profile has been harder to translate. Douglas entered Sunday just 11 dynasty Lifetime Value Rating points behind Bell and their positions are ripe to be flipped.
15. Derrick Henry’s Receiving Floor Is Missing
Henry has scored fewer than six fantasy points in consecutive weeks after 17 straight games with at least 10 fantasy points. The Alfred Morris corollary is getting uncomfortable with Lamar Jackson OUT. When the running game holes close up, limited receiving involvement leaves nowhere for Henry to hide.
16. Cam Skattebo Rewarded the Start
Our Start or Stream calls delivered: bench Garrett Wilson, who scored four points, and start Skattebo, who produced 124 rushing yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. The Giants’ backfield remains somewhat unsettled but that performance still earns another start.
17. Deep Streamers Need Routes: Savion Williams & Jordan Watkins
Savion Williams caught all seven targets over two weeks, added two carries Sunday, and banked seven fantasy points. Jordan Watkins nearly added a touchdown, but his Route Participation Rate fell from 88.2% to 71%, behind Brandin Cooks’ 79%. Mason Taylor has also roughly doubled Kenyon Sadiq’s Route Participation Rate over two games.
18. Matthew Golden Needs Production; Michael Wilson Needs Patience
Golden ranks 69th of 83 qualified receivers in catch rate. That is NOT nice. He also leads in unrealized air yards. Meanwhile, add Michael Wilson with December in mind: Jets, Saints, Raiders in Weeks 15–17.
19. Tampa Bay Took Passing Volume Off the Menu
The Buccaneers posted an 18% pass rate, the second-lowest in ten years. That is an extreme environment for fantasy receivers. Before burying Ted Hurst (0 yards), we must recognize how few passing opportunities the entire offense created.
20. Michael Penix Jr. is a franchise savior
Atlanta is the real deal with Michael Penix. Check out Atlanta’s game log the last five weeks:
Watch and Listen Here ⤵️
YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/NMLgTvCMiwM
Podcast: https://pod.link/1671453139